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-  2019 

Black walnut alley cropping is economically competitive with row crops in the Midwest USA

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1829

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Abstract:

The maize–soybean rotation (MSR) dominates the Midwest United States and degrades many ecological functions. Black walnut (Juglans nigra L.) plantation forestry (PF) and alley cropping (AC) are two alternative land‐uses that can enhance productivity and restore ecosystem services. Given the lack of robust market mechanisms to monetize ecosystems services, we tested whether the profitability of PF and AC could drive adoption in the Midwest. Publically available data on black walnut soil suitability, timber prices, crop productivity, and cash rents were combined in a high‐resolution spatial analysis to identify regions where these alternatives can outcompete MSR. To avoid selecting an arbitrary discount rate at which to make comparisons, we determined the threshold discount rate necessary to make PF or AC economically competitive with MSR. We show that, with a 5% discount rate, PF and AC could be more profitable on 17.0% and 23.4% of MSR land, respectively. Contrary to the common assumption that woody agricultural alternatives should first be adopted in marginal row crop areas, the economic competitiveness of PF and AC was not correlated with MSR productivity. Instead, black walnut growth rate was the central driver of PF and AC competitiveness, underscoring a necessary shift away from the current MSR‐centric perspective in defining target regions for land‐use alternatives. Results reveal major opportunities for landowners and investors to increase profitability by investing in PF and AC on both “marginal” and productive MSR land. The maize–soybean rotation (MSR) is the dominant land‐use in the Midwest United States (Fig. 1a). Though extremely productive, MSR degrades many ecological functions (Foley 2005, USEPA 2007, 2012), is sensitive to future climate change (Mistry et al. 2017), and its profitability is volatile (Brandes et al. 2016). Alley cropping (AC), an agroforestry practice that grows crops in alleys between tree rows, is an alternative land‐use that can enhance productivity and restore ecosystem services (Thevathasan and Gordon 2004, Jose 2009, Tsonkova et al. 2012). For example, AC can sequester substantial amounts of carbon (Udawatta and Jose 2012) and reduce nitrogen losses via nitrate leaching (Dougherty et al. 2009, Wolz et al. 2018a) and nitrous oxide emissions (Beaudette et al. 2010, Wolz et al. 2018a). While these environmental benefits can certainly increase landowners’ interest in agroforestry (Mattia et al. 2016, Winans et al. 2016), they have failed to drive adoption due to the lack of robust market mechanisms to monetize their

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